Problem
Value Hostelworld Group plc and defend a recommendation in front of a panel, as a four-person team at UCD Smurfit.
What I did
I was the only team member without a finance background, so I took the product and data lens: the operating numbers underneath the model, and whether they said what we thought they said. I owned two of the four investment theses and the ESG section.
How it works
The core of my contribution was a revenue bridge. I split the change in net revenue from FY2023 to FY2025 into three drivers: booking volume, bed price and take rate. Volume was positive and bed price was heavily negative. Take rate was the only line that worked. That finding became the first thesis.
Evidence
- Recommendation: BUY, target price EUR 1.56 against EUR 1.17, upside 33.2%.
- The team reached the live presentation stage of the UCD Smurfit internal round in October 2026.
- Every figure traced to the company's own filings. Share prices were taken from the London line and converted to euro.
Limits and next steps
The team was not selected to continue beyond the internal round. With more time I would test how sensitive the thesis is to a fall in take rate, since the whole case rests on that one driver.
This was a student exercise and is not investment advice.